As if on cue, the birding gods delivered two early vagrants to Britain: a Steppe Grey Shrike in Dunbar, Lothian; and a Swainson’s Thrush on St Kilda, Outer Hebrides. Both occurred on the same day, and in this brief report… Read More »Case Study 1: Applying probability distribution modelling to two early vagrants to the British Isles in autumn 2024

On 7th September, during a phenomenal fall of migrants on the North Norfolk coast, my dad encountered a very monochromatic “yellow wagtail” taxon out in Burnham Overy Dunes. While he didn’t hear it call, his impressions in the field (and… Read More »How Weird is This Record? Measuring “Likelihood” in Bird Vagrancy